Wes Nakagiri

Livingston County Commissioner, District 3

Governor Whitmer has flawed COVID data. One daily COVID case count was off by 230.6%. Yes, an examination conducted on May 19, 2020, showed a difference of 851 COVID cases reported for the date of May 12th. April 29 and 30 showed differences of 41.5% and 46.9% respectively.

No wonder left-of-center Bridge Magazine reported, “Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has resisted using metrics like case counts or available hospital beds to guide her decision on when businesses can reopen.” It is only natural that she’ll resist using metrics if she can’t do the math.

The Whitmer Administration lists the daily quantity of COVID cases for each day going back to March 1. Each day COVID cases are shown for each of Michigan’s eight Emergency Preparedness Regions. An additional column showing the daily statewide total is also included.

Using simple arithmetic, the daily sum of each of the eight Emergency Preparedness Regions should equal the daily statewide total. Unfortunately, this only occurred on 11 of the 80 days. The remaining 69 days had errors from as low as 0.2% to as high as 230.6%. The overall grand total was off by 6.6%.

Were these errors due to careless data entry or some other more nefarious reason? Who knows! No matter what the reason, one can readily conclude that the Whitmer Administration lacks the proper oversight of this critically important data. This data is part of the foundation of information allowing policymakers to make good decisions regarding Michigan families’ physical and financial health.

Optimum decisions cannot be made with bogus data. As the saying goes, “Garbage in, garbage out.” Whitmer has stated she’ll make decisions using the “best science.” But her best science is junk science when her math is so far off.

The glaring errors identified in this report raises an important question. What other errors are lurking in the rest of her data? Could these and other errors be the cause of Governor Whitmer slow-walking the reopening of our state?

Since the pandemic started, Whitmer has never been upfront about sharing her data with the public. In fact, what little transparency there used to be was all but eliminated with her executive order, essentially doing away with Freedom of Information Act requests. By denying public access to her data, she can manipulate it to justify her small-business-crushing policies. Without sound data and transparency, she is able to draw any conclusion she wants and citizens will never be the wiser.

Added after the article was published

An excerpt from a May 15th newsletter published by State Representative Mary Whiteford (R). This excerpt reinforces the point that Governor Whitmer has a flawed COVID policy.


Governor Whitmer’s press conference Wednesday left some Republican lawmakers frustrated at the lack of a solid plan for opening the state.

“When asked for her data formula to advance to the next stage of reopening, she couldn’t provide it,” said Rep. Lynn Afendoulis, R—Grand Rapids Twp. “Her only answer was ‘it depends, it depends.’ It is now clear to all Michiganders she does not have metrics for moving forward. She’s just making it up as she goes along.”

Lawmakers cited questions asked of her following the conference to which the governor did not have answers, or in some instances, admitted she had no information to support the statements she made.

http://gophouse.org/legislators-governors-reopening-plan-is-based-on-guesswork/?fbclid=IwAR1w1SNX5rRUDAxEeYJaqLSIHVXUmxEUfDCJZPENcoalXusqCi9BdHM9KuQ

Source Material

The flawed data is shown in the table below. Click here to see a screenshot of this data.

The data was retrieved from this State of Michigan website on March 19, 2020
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173_99207---,00.html

Date Region 1 Region 2N Region 2S Region 3 Region 5 Region 6 Region 7 Region 8 Grand Total Sum of All
Regions
Difference % Diff
1-Mar 0 3 7 3 0 1 0 0 14 14 0 0.0%
2-Mar 1 3 7 0 0 1 0 0 13 12 1 8.3%
3-Mar 1 14 4 3 0 0 1 0 23 23 0 0.0%
4-Mar 2 11 7 0 0 3 0 0 23 23 0 0.0%
5-Mar 0 8 13 1 0 1 2 0 27 25 2 8.0%
6-Mar 0 13 21 2 1 3 0 0 40 40 0 0.0%
7-Mar 0 24 17 3 1 2 1 0 48 48 0 0.0%
8-Mar 2 21 31 4 0 2 0 0 60 60 0 0.0%
9-Mar 3 48 56 8 0 3 1 0 120 119 1 0.8%
10-Mar 7 49 84 7 2 3 0 0 152 152 0 0.0%
11-Mar 8 82 93 5 1 3 2 0 196 194 2 1.0%
12-Mar 11 114 118 11 6 2 3 0 265 265 0 0.0%
13-Mar 17 154 144 21 8 5 2 0 351 351 0 0.0%
14-Mar 20 140 171 16 4 5 5 0 363 361 2 0.6%
15-Mar 14 185 206 27 5 9 4 1 453 451 2 0.4%
16-Mar 42 249 329 41 12 10 6 0 691 689 2 0.3%
17-Mar 30 311 340 45 7 17 3 3 756 756 0 0.0%
18-Mar 36 324 423 32 12 13 7 4 853 851 2 0.2%
19-Mar 26 269 371 30 5 9 3 3 720 716 4 0.6%
20-Mar 30 321 459 61 13 15 8 4 915 911 4 0.4%
21-Mar 16 270 411 46 12 11 8 1 778 775 3 0.4%
22-Mar 33 297 358 54 10 12 8 1 778 773 5 0.6%
23-Mar 60 453 562 80 16 11 9 1 1200 1192 8 0.7%
24-Mar 38 366 526 77 16 14 8 3 1060 1048 12 1.1%
25-Mar 42 372 605 60 14 21 6 1 1147 1121 26 2.3%
26-Mar 45 357 554 79 14 17 11 2 1105 1079 26 2.4%
27-Mar 56 410 651 79 31 22 11 1 1283 1261 22 1.7%
28-Mar 34 344 525 51 23 18 7 5 1022 1007 15 1.5%
29-Mar 36 305 433 57 15 35 4 3 906 888 18 2.0%
30-Mar 43 531 784 97 24 22 8 2 1534 1511 23 1.5%
31-Mar 30 432 628 76 22 27 4 5 1259 1224 35 2.9%
1-Apr 71 513 703 95 34 31 6 1 1490 1454 36 2.5%
2-Apr 43 381 505 65 26 22 9 0 1077 1051 26 2.5%
3-Apr 49 423 512 75 27 39 11 1 1164 1137 27 2.4%
4-Apr 43 319 442 69 26 32 6 4 956 941 15 1.6%
5-Apr 36 299 355 71 25 37 0 2 839 825 14 1.7%
6-Apr 65 413 569 105 31 49 9 3 1268 1244 24 1.9%
7-Apr 37 359 506 75 28 45 6 0 1089 1056 33 3.1%
8-Apr 34 351 433 94 24 51 6 2 1028 995 33 3.3%
9-Apr 39 338 397 65 26 36 9 7 950 917 33 3.6%
10-Apr 51 310 408 89 38 51 10 3 1003 960 43 4.5%
11-Apr 39 188 353 76 28 52 8 0 767 744 23 3.1%
12-Apr 25 198 230 71 33 58 8 1 639 624 15 2.4%
13-Apr 57 298 361 85 41 63 19 0 972 924 48 5.2%
14-Apr 35 245 344 81 33 51 16 3 831 808 23 2.8%
15-Apr 42 227 352 85 32 94 17 0 867 849 18 2.1%
16-Apr 47 204 329 73 48 97 21 0 850 819 31 3.8%
17-Apr 42 189 324 76 48 87 15 0 817 781 36 4.6%
18-Apr 46 146 232 50 44 83 31 1 665 633 32 5.1%
19-Apr 37 115 177 54 26 78 6 2 514 495 19 3.8%
20-Apr 60 203 265 80 60 154 8 0 855 830 25 3.0%
21-Apr 33 201 285 89 53 130 11 5 1027 807 220 27.3%
22-Apr 53 231 265 57 47 126 8 0 1041 787 254 32.3%
23-Apr 41 181 255 65 60 102 7 5 825 716 109 15.2%
24-Apr 40 164 296 74 55 107 3 3 911 742 169 22.8%
25-Apr 39 85 134 36 57 101 9 1 469 462 7 1.5%
26-Apr 37 87 96 35 32 148 7 1 448 443 5 1.1%
27-Apr 38 135 297 47 53 209 15 3 846 797 49 6.1%
28-Apr 50 133 222 43 74 134 6 4 717 666 51 7.7%
29-Apr 35 135 201 46 61 138 3 2 879 621 258 41.5%
30-Apr 40 127 202 49 61 110 0 0 865 589 276 46.9%
1-May 28 120 218 49 54 136 2 0 626 607 19 3.1%
2-May 26 67 100 28 32 79 2 1 348 335 13 3.9%
3-May 25 50 93 19 41 67 3 0 302 298 4 1.3%
4-May 33 114 208 47 86 143 3 0 645 634 11 1.7%
5-May 25 113 205 57 49 121 1 0 578 571 7 1.2%
6-May 27 116 169 34 41 114 1 0 507 502 5 1.0%
7-May 16 102 163 44 39 112 2 3 487 481 6 1.2%
8-May 26 96 140 45 42 95 0 0 455 444 11 2.5%
9-May 17 53 92 34 27 62 0 0 286 285 1 0.4%
10-May 9 25 35 13 28 82 0 0 196 192 4 2.1%
11-May 28 75 105 35 62 139 2 1 477 447 30 6.7%
12-May 19 59 104 62 38 85 1 1 1220 369 851 230.6%
13-May 17 57 96 29 38 77 0 1 401 315 86 27.3%
14-May 16 61 76 23 37 77 2 1 311 293 18 6.1%
15-May 20 40 82 35 27 76 1 0 288 281 7 2.5%
16-May 10 8 42 4 10 53 0 0 132 127 5 3.9%
17-May 4 11 22 4 4 38 0 0 86 83 3 3.6%
18-May 11 9 33 19 27 56 0 0 163 155 8 5.2%
19-May 0 2 5 3 2 6 0 0 18 18 0 0.0%
Grand Total 2344 14856 20976 3735 2189 4450 442 102 52350 49094 3256 6.6%